Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
